Abstrato

An empirical study of the cyclic fluctuation of forestry economy in China

Yang Gao, Zheng Zhao, Ya-li Wen

The fluctuation of forestry economy is considered as an imperative issue in forestry economy. In this paper, statistical description, Hodrick-Prescott Filter and Chow test are applied to examine the short-run fluctuation and long-term fluctuation of annual growth rate of output value of forestry in China with data covering 1993-2012. Empirical evidence reveals there are five cycles which is associated with the average wave length up to 3 years regarding to short-run analysis of forestry fluctuation. And two long-term fluctuation of forestry economy, which is associated with Juglar cycle, can be recognized based on Chow test. Moreover, it is shown that all fluctuation of forestry economy is in accordance with implementation of forestry policy. With the purpose of promoting the growth of output value of forestry, Chinese government needs to be extra careful in implementing relevant investment policies