Abstrato

The water evaluation model and its application in China

Shujuan Yuan, Jingfei Chen, Aimin Yang, Qingpeng Ding, Xin Zhou

The fresh water in China occupies 6%of that of the whole world, while the population occupies 21.29% of that of the whole world. The shortage of the freshwater is a key factor limiting the development of China.According to the distribution of the water resources in the mainland China, with the aim of protecting the water resources, we give the priority to the earth surface water resource and regard it as the total amount of water resource to do the analysis and movement of the water. Firstly, by consulting the data and combining the Chinese national conditions, we reckon the provinces with water shortage. Using the combinationmodel of greymodel andBP neural network, thewater shortage inYear 2025 of the provinces with water deficiency can be predicted. The prediction relative error of themodel is 0.31%. The prediction precision is high. The water resource strategy set according to the prediction value can satisfy the needs of the water resources in Year 2025. Secondly, according to the different location of the provinces, the provinces with water shortage can be divided into inland areas and coastal areas. So we can get the best way of obtaining the water resources is to allocate. In the coastal areas, besides the movement of the water, we should consider the impacts of desalination to the economy, physics and the environment.